South County Dublin Housing Market Projections

Updated end June 2024

Whereas we achieved an average of 8% above asking for our sales in H1 2024, we would expect that to drop back a bit in the second half of the year due to seasonal factors and political uncertainty both at home and overseas. We are achieving asking price or above for 90% of our sales agreed so far in 2024.

The local South County Dublin residential housing market has stayed strong throughout 2023 and through the first half of 2024. The main driver is the strength of the economy. With expanding employment there are workers immigrating from overseas, and returning Irish emigrees – generating a significant capital inflow and increasing demand for properties, especially in the premium South County Dublin markets which we serve.

There has been very high demand for first time buyer properties, especially ones in walk-in condition. Typically these have been selling within 3-4 weeks at prices approximately 10% over asking. We have been achieving excellent results for both houses and apartments. Some have sold for 20%+ over asking.

Mid-range properties in the price range €700,000 to €1m have also seen good demand, depending on condition and location. We have been able to achieve very active interest in most of these properties with multiple bidders bringing selling prices to 5-10% over asking. Others, typically needing extensive modernization, have typically sold for around the asking price. We have achieved some outstanding results for properties in prime locations, or in particularly good condition.

In the €1m+ price range it all depends on the property. We have sold some for €150,000+ over asking, others struggle to reach the asking price.

The big story in 2023-24 has been the continued rise in property values. Prices on average are now almost 10% above the 2007 peak. Some commentators believe that falling interest rates will fuel further rises. I do not subscribe to that opinion as I feel the upcoming political uncertainty will put a damper on the market in H2 2024. If you have a property to sell we would recommend bringing it to market as soon as possible. We can launch properties very quickly. With our high performance approach we obtain outstanding sales prices very quickly. The mean length of time it has taken us to sale agree a property in H1 2024 is just 29 days.

Properties with a B3 or better BER rating now qualify for a green mortgage at reduced interest rates. I have talked with many prospective buyers who are restricting their search to qualifying properties. As a result we see very strong viewing numbers and active bidding for properties with a B3 or better BER rating. We have advised quite a few sellers to upgrade the BER prior to sale. Sometimes changing light bulbs is all that is needed. Other properties can reach this standard by installing HIVE controls, upgrading the boiler, installing attic insulation, or getting the property wrapped or cavity walls pumped. As a former BER assessor I have a good knowledge in this area and am happy to advise our clients on this issue. There are SEAI grants available for many of these upgrades.

After the disruption caused by the departure of KBC and Ulster Bank from the mortgage market in late 2022, the banking sector has settled down to a new base level. The legal conveyancing process has become even more complex. We used to guide 6-8 weeks for completing a sale if selling to a mortgage buyer who already has mortgage approval in principle. This year it has slipped to an average of 109 days (15 weeks) due to delays in conveyancing. The quickest sale this year took six weeks – thanks to a seller who had all their paperwork ready to go with no questions needed.

The rental market has become even more unstable as smaller landlords leave the market. Some landlords coming off fixed rate mortgages or interest only arrangements are being forced to sell by their banks, as they can no longer afford the mortgage payments. When tenants move out, at least 50% of our manged properties are being sold instead of re-let. This is partially due to the landlords not being able to increase the rent to compensate for increased costs, the most significant of which is increased mortgage interest. But landlords are also very nervous about the perceived pro-tenant bias of the RTB and increased regulation. The positive side of this for the rental market is that most of these properties are being sold to first time buyers who are vacating another rental property.

As we enter H2 2024 we have a seller’s market with a very low supply of properties and lots of highly motivated buyers with funding in place who are keen to complete a purchase as soon as possible.

In most years prices drop back slightly seasonally in the second half of the year, especially in Q4. This is likely to happen again in 2024, especially in light of softening prices in the UK (probably due to the economic effects of Brexit, which may be accelerated by a change of government), an upcoming election in Ireland and international instability with intractable wars in Ukraine and Gaza and a very divisive presidential election in the US.

As a smaller independent agency we take great pride in our work. Since January 2021 our selling prices were on average 7.42% above asking, with 94% achieving the full asking price or more.  If you google us, you can read the Google reviews posted by our clients.

Please send me an email at phil@ckp.ie or call me on his mobile 087-279 9131 if you want to talk about your specific needs or to schedule a free sales consultation at your property.

What is Your Property Really Worth?

Get a Free Property Valuation If You Are Thinking of Selling.

By sending this message you agree to our privacy and cookie policy

Our dedicated team of valuation experts have over thirty years of experience selling commercial and residential property in Dublin and North Wicklow, and their extensive local knowledge can point you in the right direction.

There is no obligation to engage our services once you receive the valuation.