2023 South County Dublin Housing Market Projections

We see significant changes happening in the South County Dublin property market. Some of the heat has gone out of the market and property price inflation has slowed.

Whereas we achieved 10.28% above asking for our sales in 2022, we would expect that to drop back closer to the asking price in 2023. We are still achieving above the asking price for most of our sales agreed so far in 2023.

This slow down started in Q4 2022 after the Central Bank announced that it was changing the mortgage borrowing thresholds. As a result many mortgage buyers deferred buying until the new rules kicked in on 1 st January. With the departure of KBC and Ulster Bank the mortgage lending sector capacity shrank by 20% in a very short period of time. The remaining banks did not hire enough extra staff to cover this, as they waited for the experienced staff to transfer. On top of this they were swamped with borrowers switching.

As a result they were very slow to issue new mortgages. It was the end of February before many buyers had their Approval in Principle under the new rules. We are now seeing good demand and active bidding for family homes in the low to mid price ranges. Another impact of this was a significant delay in the completion of agreed sales, skewing the sales completion and mortgage draw-down figures. To fill this gap, Revolut or another bank may enter the mortgage market, increasing competition and improving customer service.

As we enter Q2 we have a seller’s market with a very low supply of properties and lots of highly motivated buyers with funding in place who are keen to complete a purchase before interest rates rise further. When interest rates increase buyers can borrow less and house prices tend to go down. In Ireland the change in Central Bank rules has more than offset this. Fuel prices are now dropping back to pre Ukrainian conflict levels, and headline inflation figures are dropping. This is dampening the pressure to continue increasing interest rates. The rapid rise in interest rates has put pressure on some banks.

The Irish banks are likely to ride through this storm unscathed as they have a very strong market position, an excellent level of deposits and plenty of reserves. Bank of Ireland shares are recovering quickly and even with the recent drop they are up almost 50% in the last 6 months. The rental eviction ban is coming to an end on 1 st April. A lot of landlords want out. This could release thousands of ex-rental properties onto the market. Some market segments are likely to see a big jump in supply. Prices in these segments could drop significantly. Many of these properties will need work. For the last 5 years landlords stopped upgrading their properties as they couldn’t increase the rent and get a return on their investment.

The other area prices have been dropping are in boom-built apartment complexes with fire-safety or construction issues. This could be a good time to move house. We would expect there to be an increase in supply and a far better selection of properties to choose from by the time your sale completes. If you sell now you will benefit from the premium prices we are currently securing, and then be in a position to buy at a time of wider choice with less competitive bidding.
 
The property market is expected to remain very active through the summer months again this year, due to the effect of pent-up demand. Once talk of the budget starts in October, it tends to cool off. In most years prices drop back slightly in the 4 th  quarter. Property prices are very sensitive to external factors. As we learned in 2022, there is always the possibility that something unexpected will occur to destabilize the market. If you have a property with equity in it which you wish to liquidate, it is wise to strike while the iron is hot. As a smaller independent agency we take great pride in our work. In 2022 our selling prices were on average 10.28% above asking, with 93% achieving the full asking price or more.  If you google us, you can read the Google reviews posted by our clients.

Please send me an email at phil@ckp.ie or call me on his mobile 087-279 9131 if you want to talk about your specific needs or to schedule a free sales consultation at your property.

What is Your Property Really Worth?

Get a Free Property Valuation If You Are Thinking of Selling.

There is no obligation to engage our services once you receive the valuation.

By sending this message you agree to our privacy and cookie policy

Our dedicated team of valuation experts have over thirty years of experience selling commercial and residential property in Dublin and North Wicklow, and their extensive local knowledge can point you in the right direction.