South County Dublin Housing Market Report and Projections

Updated end December 2024

The property market has been very hot for the last year. As we close out 2024 most properties are selling above asking – with some going for up to 25% over. This is reflective of a sellers market where demand exceeds supply – which is typical of a growing economy with net inward migration, a growing work force and expanding population.

The central statistics office recently reported an average price increase in the Dublin area of 10.4% in the year to the end of November. These are accurate figures derived from the property price register – which lags the market by about 6 months. It is generated from Stamp Duty payments when a completed purchase is registered in the name of the new owner. https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/hubs/p-hh/housinghub/

MyHome recently reported that properties listed on their platform are selling for an average of 7% above asking. Here in Casey Kennedy Estate Agents we have exceeded that figure for the properties we sale agreed in Q4 2024.

Population size drives demand

The local South County Dublin residential housing market has stayed strong throughout 2023 and through year to date in 2024. The main drivers are the strength of the economy, immigration and money coming in from overseas. Wages here are amost the highest in the EU. With expanding employment there are workers immigrating from overseas, and returning Irish emigrees – generating a significant capital inflow and increasing demand for properties, especially in the premium South County Dublin markets which we serve.

Market Segments

There has been very high demand for first time buyer properties, especially ones in walk-in condition. Typically these have been selling within 3-4 weeks at prices approximately 10% over asking. We have been achieving excellent results for both houses and apartments. Some have sold for 20%+ over asking.

Mid-range properties in the price range €600,000 to €1m have also seen good demand, depending on condition and location. We have been able to achieve very active interest in most of these properties with multiple bidders bringing selling prices to 5-10% over asking. Others, typically needing extensive modernization, have typically sold for around the asking price. We have achieved some outstanding results for properties in prime locations, or in particularly good condition.

In the €1m+ price range it all depends on the property. We have sold some for €150,000+ over asking, others struggle to reach the asking price.

How long does it take to sell a property?

The big story in 2023-24 has been the continued rise in property values. Dublin prices on average are now 7% above the 2007 peak. If you have a property to sell we would recommend bringing it to market as soon as possible. We can launch properties very quickly. With our high performance approach we obtain outstanding sales prices in just a few weeks. The mean length of time it has taken us to sale agree a property in H2 2024 is just 23 days.

The importance of the BER rating

Properties with a B3 or better BER rating now qualify for a green mortgage at reduced interest rates. I have talked with many prospective buyers who are restricting their search to qualifying properties. As a result we see very strong viewing numbers and active bidding for properties which qualify. We have advised quite a few sellers to upgrade the BER prior to sale. Sometimes changing light bulbs is all that is needed. Other properties can reach this standard by installing HIVE controls, upgrading the boiler, installing attic insulation, or getting the property wrapped or cavity walls pumped. As a former BER assessor I have a good knowledge in this area and am happy to advise our clients on this issue. There are SEAI grants available for many of these upgrades.

Mortgage lending and bridging finance

After the disruption caused by the departure of KBC and Ulster Bank from the mortgage market in late 2022, the banking sector has settled down to a new base level. First time buyer mortgages are readily available. Interest rates are on a downward trajectory. Lower interest rates mean that buyers can afford a larger mortgage within their monthly budget. Falling interest rates tends to lead to house price inflation.

For those seeking to move house the absence of bridging finance makes the logistics very challenging. In the last few weeks one of the Irish financial institutions have launched a bridging offering as a pilot scheme. Hopefully that will inspire the others to do so. The area of greatest need is equity rich / cash poor homeowners who have paid off their mortgage and are now looking to downsize. These people are in a financial situation where they have to complete their sale before they can complete a purchase – but they are not willing or able to sell without first lining up their new home. This can be challenging as most sellers of desirable properties prefer lower risk buyers. This means that these downsizers are effectively locked out of the market. In the absence of independent finance from friends or family, the solution for these people may be a government backed bridging scheme. Introducing such a scheme would help make better use of our housing stock, increase the volume of properties changing hands and help to improve our carbon footprint – as new buyers tend to do a deep retrofit on well-located older properties. It would also help release all this equity which currently tied up in housing.

Conveyancing process

The legal conveyancing process has become even more complex. We used to guide 6-8 weeks for completing a sale if selling to a mortgage buyer who already has mortgage approval in principle. This year it has slipped to an average of 120 days (17 weeks) due to delays in conveyancing. The quickest sale this year took six weeks – thanks to a seller who had all their paperwork ready to go with no questions needed. The solution may lie in legislation before the Dail (backed by IPAV) requiring sellers and their solicitors to sort out the legals before going to market.

Rental market

The rental market has become even more unstable as smaller landlords leave the market. Some landlords coming off fixed rate mortgages or interest only arrangements are being forced to sell by their banks, as they can no longer afford the mortgage payments. When tenants move out, at least 50% of our manged properties are being sold instead of re-let. This is partially due to the landlords not being able to increase the rent to compensate for increased costs. But landlords are also very nervous about the perceived pro-tenant bias of the RTB and increased regulation. The positive side of this for the rental market is that most of these properties are being sold to first time buyers who are vacating another rental property.

Conclusion

As we approach the end of 2024 we have a seller’s market with a very low supply of properties and a database with lots of highly motivated buyers with funding in place who are keen to complete a purchase as soon as possible.

With falling interest rates, a stable national government expected following the recent general election, and an impoved international outlook, the fundamentals would indicate that further price rises are the more likely scenario for 2025. However we do not know the future and risks of an international shock to the system cannot be ruled out.

As an independent agency we take great pride in our work. Since January 2021 our selling prices for residential properties have been on average 7.4% above asking, with 94% achieving the full asking price or more.  If you google us, you can read the Google reviews posted by our clients.

Please send me an email at phil@ckp.ie or call me on his mobile 087-279 9131 if you want to talk about your specific needs or to schedule a free sales consultation at your property.

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